Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-Wildfires burn on both coasts. Is climate change to blame?

Historically dry conditions and Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Centerdrought in the mid-Atlantic and Northeastern part of the United States are a key factor in the string of wildfires the region has faced in the past weeks, with officials issuing red flag warnings across the Northeast.

On the West Coast, California is battling multiple wildfires, where dry conditions and wind have caused explosive fires that have burned more than 200 homes and businesses.

It's not possible to say that climate change caused the fires, but the extreme conditions fueling the fires have strong connections to the effects of climate change, according to David Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University.

"Human-induced climate change underpins all of our day-to-day weather," he said.

It's as if the weather foundation has been raised, he said. "The atmosphere is warmer, the oceans are warmer," he said. If a storm comes through to trigger them then you get torrential rains. But if there's no trigger, "you still have the increasing warmth, so it dries things out."

Overall, the entire weather system is more energized, leaning to the kinds of extreme variability that are being seen now, Robinson said.

"The historic drought, intensified by stronger winds and low relative humidity, continues to fuel fires across New Jersey and other Northeast states in November—a period not typically associated with such events," Firas Saleh, director of North American Wildfire Models at Moody’s Ratings, a business and financial analysis company, said in a statement.

"The wildfires impacting New Jersey serves as an important reminder that wildfire risk is not confined to Western states alone. This situation highlights the critical importance of preparedness and reminds us that climate risks know no geographic boundaries," he said.

Northeastern fires exploding

Last month was the second-warmest October on record in the 130 years at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been keeping records. Rainfall nationally was 1.2 inches below average, tying the month with October 1963 as the second-driest October on record.

In New Jersey, a tiny amount of rain earlier this week "was only a Band-aid" said Robinson. "Several of our cities that have records back to the 1870s went 42 days without measurable rain."

"It’s absolutely why we’re having wildfires throughout New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic," he said. "There's plenty of fuel, most of the leaves have fallen and the forests are bone dry."

In New York and New Jersey, the Jennings Creek fire extended into its sixth day on Wednesday, burning more than 3,500 acres.

California fire burns more than 215 buildings

Southern California has been dealing with the ferocious Mountain Fire since November 6. So far it has destroyed 216 structures and covers 20,000 acres, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Drops in the wind have allowed firefighters to largely contain it, officials said Wednesday.

The fire's behavior was partly due to California not being in a drought after multiple years of extremely dry temperatures, said experts. But that in turn has led to its own problems.

Wet years build up what firefighters call "herbaceous fuels," meaning quick-growing grasses, brush and chaparral. In some places the fuel loads were 50 to 100% above normal due to the previous winter's rains. When things turn dry, the entire state can become a tinderbox.

"When we kiln dry that fuel with a record-breaking heat wave for seven to ten days as we just experienced, that's a recipe for some pretty extreme fire behavior and that's just when the winds arrived," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.

"These fires just took off like gang busters," he said.